樱桃导航

• In a world of complex and interrelated societal challenges, leaders must use strategic foresight to understand what they should build, create, and decide right now.
• Students at emlyon work with real organizations to develop elaborate scenarios about the possible futures these companies might face.
• During the course, students learn to ask nuanced questions and propose inspirational solutions. They also grow more optimistic about the future.

 
As the world faces unprecedented environmental, social, and economic challenges, businesses cannot simply design solutions for the here and now. As the World Economic Forum , companies also need to develop strategic foresight to plan for what comes next.

Many world leaders are already committing to future-focused initiatives. For instance, at the September 2024 , attendees adopted a Pact for the Future that deals with a broad range of issues, from climate change to human rights.

But given the magnitude and systemic nature of the challenges we face, forward thinking is no longer exclusively the job of the CEO. All managers must possess , or the capability to “prepare, plan, and interact with the complexity and novelty of our societies.” The concept was introduced by Riel Miller at UNESCO in 2012—and we believe it’s one that needs to be addressed by business schools today.

A Few Examples

Some educational institutions are already working toward improving the futures literacy of their graduates. For instance, the University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Western Switzerland (HES-SO) offers a and Stanford University in California runs the initiative.

In such offerings, schools encourage students to systematically consider and explore alternative futures. Courses commonly cover such as trend analysis, horizon scanning, visioning, and scenario planning. Scenarios are by no means predictions. They are intended to be controlled speculative thought experiments that yield narratives about potential outcomes in possible futures. Participants use scenarios to better understand what they should build, create, or decide right now—and why.

At emlyon business school in France, we run an entry-level foresight-oriented course called Sustainable Futures, and it has engaged more than 4,000 students in the past six years. It was inspired by the , which is directed by Rafael Ramirez at the University of Oxford’s Saïd Business School in the U.K.

We introduced Sustainable Futures during the 2017–18 academic year as the opening course for our executive MBA program. The following year, we used the same pedagogical setup in the Master in Management program (known as the Grande École program in France).

Today, the course is part of the compulsory curriculum in the first year of the Grande École. In that program, the 30-hour Sustainable Futures course unfolds over the entire semester and is worth five credits. Other formats—such as weeklong seminars—are deployed in programs such as our international MBA and executive MBA.

Scenarios are intended to be controlled speculative thought experiments that yield narratives about potential outcomes in possible futures.

The course’s principles are consistent with emlyon business school’s strategic plan and our deeply rooted commitment to pedagogical innovation. Sustainable Futures has evolved each year as we strive to enhance the futures literacy of our students. As the course director and instructors of this program, the three of us want to share some of the insights we have gained from running Sustainable Futures.

The Course Structure

In the class, students delve into live case studies with participating companies, foundations, or nongovernmental organizations, then prepare scenarios that envision potential futures for these organizations. Representatives attend four class sessions, sharing details about their organizations, discussing deliverables, and participating in final presentations.

Students achieve learning through three main classroom activities:

Strategic, guided conversation. Instructors direct the sensemaking process, promote active research, and encourage students to consult interdisciplinary references that include history, art, fiction, political debates, and personal experiences.

These guided conversations require a structured process anchored in clear premises and theoretical constraints. For instance, a central tenet of the course is that humans must acknowledge , the nine processes that ensure the stability of the Earth. Students also learn to consider the plausibility and time horizon of the future scenarios they construct.

Open-ended, multiperspective inquiry. No strategic conversation with an organization should focus solely on a single problem. As earth systems sciences make clear, today’s are all interrelated. Therefore, our students learn to embrace complexity and systems thinking by holding open-ended and wide-ranging discussions.

As an example, if one class is using an automotive manufacturer for a live case study, different teams of students might focus on topics such as new mobility trends, materials traceability, or factory work conditions. When teams share their conversations with each other, they build a composite image of the company’s future. In this way, students begin to grasp the connected and systemic nature of phenomena, and they discern the possibilities of alternative futures.

Grounded, immersive experiences. Students conduct careful inquiry into the organization serving as their live case study. Their goal is to determine the worldviews that underpin the organization’s actions and the trends that are most relevant to it. Then they create elaborate scenarios about the company’s possible future paths. Their scenarios might include 15-minute performance-based activities (for which they write plays, interactive short stories, and news segments), or non-performance-based experiences (for which they create websites, advertising posts, and Instagram pages).

Because students focus their scenarios on an actual organization (such as a real estate developer) instead of a broad field (such as real estate development), they have to acquire a deep understanding of the issues affecting that particular business. This forces them to create narratives designed specifically for the actors involved with that company—even non-human actors such as the environment. These presentations allow both students and company representatives to break away from their current worldviews, envision the possible futures, and see those futures as more tangible.

Four Experiences

Let’s take a closer look at some actual immersive experiences crafted by students under the guidance of their instructors. Students who made films and videos wrote the scripts, served as actors, shot scenes on open-access apps over their mobile phones, and edited the films. Two organizations served as live case studies for four different teams:

A French gas and oil company. One group created a film that used dark humor to examine the potential negative impact that the company’s decisions could have on farmers. After students screened the film, a company executive held a reflective discussion on the topic with other students in the class.

When students base scenarios on actual organizations, both students and company representatives can break away from their current worldviews, envision the possible futures, and see those futures as more tangible.

A second team prepared a two-part television documentary about mining exploitation in the Republic of Congo. The program included both real news clips and a scripted panel discussion in which students acted as experts and global leaders.

Students performed the TV program live in class, then conducted an energetic question-and-answer session with the company’s representative, focusing on unethical business conduct in the global mining industry. Several students from African countries expressed their deep concerns over the way their governments are mismanaging natural resources.

An original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for the automotive industry. The company supplies low-carbon-emissions plastics for manufacturers to use in car interiors.

One team created an investigative documentary that envisioned a scenario in which bad actors tried to hinder the company’s sector leadership by falsely claiming its materials weren’t genuinely low-carbon. Students showed their documentary in class, then conducted a live, scripted interview with a company leader. The three company representatives who were present admitted the experience unsettled them and showed them how critical it is to be ready to face such challenges.

A second group of students created and performed a play that was set in 2035 and featured a panel discussion on the topic of low-carbon cars. Students acted the parts of various stakeholders, including the mayor of Paris and representatives from the bureau, the automotive union, and city planning experts.

For the discussion, students predicted a future in which capital cities had gained more regulatory power over transport. Executives were asked to explain why the company’s products weren’t more widely available at affordable price points; they also were invited to join a program in which large cities and the EU would subsidize small vehicles made from low-carbon materials. While the students created a script, they allowed some improvisation, preparing objections and responses in advance.

After the immersive experience, a group of students visited the OEM to hold a public conference on the topic of the circular economy. Guest speakers included a professor from emlyon, a representative from the Lyon government, and an engineer from the company.

Evidence of Impact

Even after our students complete the course, we must ask ourselves a key question: Will our graduates be ready to envision the future?

For the past six years, we have monitored the progress our students have made in the Sustainable Futures classes we run for both our French and English-speaking (international) cohorts. While we have found that students did not become innately futures literate, we have seen them make real progress during each 10-week teaching period, especially in these three ways:

They went from seeking quick solutions to understanding real problems. At the beginning of each class, students appeared destabilized by the discussion experience. They were impatient to share their thoughts on possible futures and wanted to offer quick fixes to problems.

Through guided conversations, students became progressively more aware of complex nuances. They appreciated the importance of gathering diverse perspectives and began considering the systemic nature of the issues that companies faced. They also became more reflective about the process of identifying problems, as could be seen by the types of questions they began to raise.

As students began building diverse alternative narratives about devastating climate news, they tended to leave behind the dominant negative opinions so pervasive in pop culture.

For instance, in one Sustainable Futures course, students conducted a live case study of a cosmetic skincare company based in Lyon. During the first two weeks, they asked relatively simple and straightforward questions: What is the company’s financial situation? Is it profitable? What’s the company’s cost structure? Why is the business model no longer working? Who are the main characters?

But during the next four weeks, their questions became more insightful: In what kind of world will the company evolve? What key driving forces will have the greatest impact on this company’s possible futures? Who could be the key actors in these futures? What will these actors do?

They abandoned fatalism and embraced empowerment. In the beginning, students tended to be overwhelmed by the devastating climate news that predicted drastically bad consequences. Their attitudes often featured a fatalism that had been colored by Hollywood disaster films. Many believed that a viable future might be found only on another planet, like Mars, or in a utopia created by new technology.

But through multiperspective scenario planning, students learned to think more openly. As they began building diverse alternative narratives, they tended to leave behind the dominant negative opinions so pervasive in pop culture.

They moved from simple, shallow solutions to inspirational proposals. Surprisingly often in their narrative presentations, groups highlighted the importance of negotiation, usually with formats that mimicked news reports, expert roundtables, summit meetings, and bilateral discussions. But the initial versions of their scenarios, which lacked authenticity and connection, felt powerless and phony.

Once students began crafting and staging based on their scenarios, we saw their thought processes take a decisive creative and reflexive leap forward. Drawing from the power of , their videos, poems, music, and future-design ideas became more uplifting. Audience members connected both emotionally and intellectually with the immersive experiences and many felt the urge to take action in the here and now. Students encouraged this reaction by having “what-now” discussions with organizations’ representatives.

Prepared for What Comes Next

If students are going to develop futures literacy, schools must provide training that goes beyond merely identifying problems and suggesting solutions. Instructors must open the door to alternative mental models by adopting pluralistic, grounded, guided, immersive approaches that encourage students to view urgent societal issues from multiple perspectives. In this way, schools will turn out graduates who know how to create sustainable futures.